A serious thought about the EU Referendum and the possibility of a second Scottish Independence referendum.
I was, and am, in favour of Scottish Independence within the EU.
I was, and am, in favour of the UK remaining part of the EU.
I wish I could have both. If we can not have both I think we should pick the EU over the UK.
Ideally, for me, Scotland would become independent from the UK whilst both were in the EU. There would be a natural and pre-existing trading arrangement. We (Scotland) would have to ride out a few years adjusting to running our own country, getting a workable currency and setting our tax rates right. It would be difficult in the short term but I think, on balance, probably, better economically and politically in the medium term. This is a guess not a promise and I might be wrong. Other people thought so and I respect their thought processes and their right to their own values and risk preferences.
But we don't live in an ideal world. There appears to be no sweet spot where we can have easy trading relationships with both the rest of the UK and the other 27 members of the EU. The next few years are going to be economically challenging in exactly the same way as Scottish Indepdence was always going to be. Avoiding the sunk cost fallacy we have to make the best of the situation we are in today, not the best of the situation we thought we were in a week ago. We have to go forward from where we are. Where we are, today, is in flux, with both peril and opportunity on all sides.
And so, it might now be the case that Scottish Indepedence as part of the EU is the best option for my country even if it wasn't when the rest of the UK was an EU member state.
If that is the case I think we should do it quickly. To quote the first and greatest British playwright
"Thereis a tide in the affairs of men, Which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune. Omitted, all the voyage of theirlife is bound in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat. And we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures."
"If it were donewhen 'tis done, then 'twere well It were done quickly"
The position of the SNP before the EU referendum as I saw it was a) to reserve the right to hold a second referendum to Scottish people, and b) to actually wait until there was a pent up demand for independence. Fair and resonable under the circumstances in my view. But slow, so slow, so flat footed.
I think those circumstances have changed. We have a very strong vote for Remain in Scotland. Is that a proxy for a vote for Independence? Maybes Aye, Maybes Nay. There's only one way to find out soon. And find out soon we must. There is an opportunity for Scotland to profit from England's error. If we move quickly, quickly to establish a firm invitation to remain in the EU, quickly to hold and win an independence referendum and then quickly to set our trade and taxation policy so as to predate on England's uncertain future by encouraging international businesses currently located in England who want an Anglophone location in the EU to relocate to Scotland rather than Ireland. Which if they are going to do, they will do sooner rather than later.
Are the people of Scotland up for this? Only one way to find out. If we wait until we are certain the opportunity to walk away from the implosion of the UK with at least our own country and economy and people intact will be gone.
So I think Sturgon should get on a plane and fly round every European capital and ask them to jointly and severally invite Scotland to stay in the EU. If successful she should announce a referendum to be held before Christmas. If that is for independence then we negotiate SExit alongside Brexit and stay in the EU.
If unsuccessful we are not any worse off. If we wait to see how damaging Brexit will be and how that actually affects public opinion the damage to us will be done and the opportunity to ameliorate that damage with some prudent, sharp business will be lost.
To be clear - I am absolutely advocating that we (Scotland) conspire to stab our closest ally and dearest friend in the back. Et tu Scotus. We should not stand with them whilst they try to work out how to be a non-European nation. We should take advantage of their distress to prosper ourselves. What choice have they left us? What choice have we left ourselves.
I vote for #IndyRef2 within six months.
Last night I watched A Midsummers Night's Dream as adapted by Russel T Davies.
I quite enjoyed it.
I have mixed feelings about the play. It's the most hipsterish of Shakespeare' plays. Which means it was probably writen by the Earl of Oxford. Not content with writing one play we get the play within the play. And the Mortals are performing for the Fairies, who are performing for us. Hamlet also has an internal play but that's about the use of propaganda. This play is about itself. It's a play about plays, about players, and playwrights, a play about being in a play, a play about plays about plays. And therefore as exciting as a night at the Baftas.
I also find the Mechanicals quite unamusing. They feel forced and unfunny. A bit like my accountancy exams; the main thing I enjoy about Bottom is when he's over.
On the other hand I enjoy the farcical element of Hermia and Helena, Lysander and Demetrius wandering through the forest each in love with the wrong person, misconstruing everything that is said and getting more and more irrational and lost. Which then bumps up against the plotting and cross-plotting and plots gone awry of the Fairies. Then love triumphs over pride and everyone is happy. There's no dog on a string but you can't have everything.
I also have mixed feelings about the adaptation. It was brilliantly lush. Well performed. Fast enough paced. I'm not convinced by the pseudo-fascist trappings or the death of Theseus or entirely sure what was going on with Hippolyta.
What I loved about the adaptation was the brilliant performance of Fisayo Akinade giving Flute's brilliant performance as Thisbe. In amongst all the silliness and ham, intentional and untentional, he rounded off the peformance with a reminder that stories, and plays and films do have the power to move us and to change us.
Early one morning I shall try the Captain on it and see if he goes for the bright colours and the silliness.
Schools in south Edinburgh are pretty much full. Some combination of immigration, a spike in birth rates and the general good quality of the schools attracting people to the area means that most of the primary schools and all of the secondary schools are expected to be over-subscribed over the next ten years.
Various people are trying to find various ways of addressing - basically building a new primary school and a new annexe for the secondary schools.
One of the factors that is driving increased rolls is that my local secondary school picks up the Gaelic Medium teaching for Edinburgh and the Lothians.
I've been very sceptical about the promotion of the Gaelic language in southern and eastern Scotland for years now. Now the implications of the policy are begining to impact my own children's education I'm now more personally sceptical.
Trying to start work on explaining our quality assurance process to a client. That is not going so well.
Recently I have done
Saw my dad for a beer.
Went out for a Michenlin starred dinner with My Lovely Wife, then a New York dinner style breakfast, then pizza - all in one weekend.
I've been booking things like massages and gin distillery tours.
Training - Two personal training sessions. I've run through the set MLW bought me for my birthday and I've decided to commit to doing two a week for the next 6-12 months. This is quite expensive so I may need to buy fewer pies at lunch.
Variance analysis for our half year performance. I have blamed the government. Not just mine, but yours too.
Got to the bottom of one of those niggling accounting things that no-one else ever understands or cares about but which suddenly pop up when your accounts are qualified (this is a bad thing) your debt covenants are pulled and you discover you are bankrupt. Mostly they cause irritation and disharmony.
I've also done some work on intellectual property rights when contracting with governments and some bid costing.
Democracy - nominated myself for Unlock Democracy's Council.
I'm doing some analysis of the Scottish Election results. So far I've looked at Lothians, Glasgow and Highlands and Island. I'll work my through the rest of the regions in no particular order then I'll have a look at the #BothVotesX stramash.
Drama - wrote up a plan for a drama workshop I'm running in a few weeks.Thinking
% of Vote
Evenutal List Seats
% of Seats
|A Better Britain – Unionist Party||0||0%||0||0%||-||0||0%|